Key Takeaways

  • Bernstein anticipates prediction market volumes climbing to approximately $1 trillion by 2030, a substantial increase from $51 billion in 2025
  • Polymarket and Kalshi have collectively generated $60 billion in trading volume during 2026 to date
  • Sports betting currently represents 62% of total volume, though crypto and macroeconomic contracts are forecast to become dominant categories
  • Sector revenues are expected to surge from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by decade’s end
  • Robinhood and Coinbase identified as major distribution channels, with analysts setting price targets at $130 and $330 respectively

A comprehensive report from Wall Street brokerage Bernstein forecasts prediction market volumes will climb to approximately $1 trillion by 2030. This represents a dramatic expansion from the $51 billion figure recorded in 2025.

Analysts at the firm anticipate volumes reaching approximately $240 billion during 2026 alone. This trajectory indicates an 80% compound annual growth rate extending through the decade’s conclusion.

Polymarket and Kalshi have collectively generated $60 billion in trading volume during 2026 thus far. This momentum demonstrates the sector is surpassing previous projections.

The Bernstein research team, headed by analyst Gautam Chhugani, identifies two primary catalysts. Enhanced regulatory clarity at the federal level serves as the first factor. The second involves blockchain technology enabling worldwide access and rapid deployment of new event-based contracts.

The CFTC has established its exclusive authority over prediction market oversight. The commission is actively developing comprehensive regulatory frameworks as the sector continues expanding.

Sports-related contracts currently account for approximately 62% of total prediction market activity. More favorable effective fee structures compared to conventional sportsbooks have contributed to this dominance.

Diversification Beyond Sports Betting

Bernstein’s analysis suggests sports contracts will decline to roughly 31% of market share by 2030. Cryptocurrency-focused agreements, alongside macroeconomic, political, and business-oriented events, are projected to emerge as leading categories.

The research team anticipates institutional adoption will develop around economics, corporate affairs, and political event contracts. Businesses and insurance providers may leverage these platforms to manage event-driven risk exposure.

Regarding revenue generation, the sector produced approximately $400 million during 2025. Bernstein forecasts this figure will climb to $2.5 billion in 2026, ultimately reaching $10.8 billion by 2030.

Polymarket has transitioned from its previous zero-fee structure. The platform currently operates at an annualized revenue pace of $420 million.

Major Platforms Capture Market Share

Robinhood has achieved a $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction market offerings within twelve months of launching its Kalshi-integrated platform. The company is simultaneously developing proprietary exchange infrastructure.

Coinbase entered the market through partnership with Kalshi, providing users nationwide access to over 1,000 different contracts.

Bernstein assigns outperform ratings to both platforms. The brokerage sets a $130 price objective for Robinhood shares, representing approximately 81% potential appreciation from Monday’s closing price. The $330 target for Coinbase suggests roughly 89% upside potential.

Research analysts observe that Robinhood’s equity valuation has declined approximately 50% since late 2025. The team believes current pricing already reflects anticipated weakness in first-quarter performance, with trading activity expected to strengthen during the second quarter.

Bernstein projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue expanding from roughly $150 million in 2025 to $586 million throughout 2026. The analysis highlights the upcoming FIFA World Cup hosted in the United States and midterm congressional elections as significant volume drivers for the year ahead.