Key Takeaways
- Robinhood shares have climbed approximately 33% from late-March lows while trading 23% below year-to-date starting levels
- Bernstein maintains Outperform rating alongside $130 price objective, suggesting approximately 50% potential gains
- Analyst Gautam Chhugani views first-quarter weakness as fully reflected in current valuation, anticipating forward-looking market focus
- Crypto revenue projections for 2026 exceed consensus estimates by 31%; prediction markets forecasts stand 30% higher than consensus
- Prediction market revenue expected to expand 286% year-over-year, reaching approximately $586 million in 2026
Robinhood has experienced significant volatility. Shares trade 53% beneath the 52-week peak of $153.86 and have declined 23% year-to-date. Diminished trading activity, contracting crypto income, and challenging macroeconomic conditions have contributed to the downturn.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani maintains conviction in the platform.
He reaffirmed an Outperform rating alongside a $130 price objective for HOOD before the company releases Q1 2026 results on April 28. Based on the present trading level near $71.67, this target represents potential appreciation of approximately 50%.
Chhugani’s central thesis centers on current valuation: first-quarter challenges appear fully incorporated into the share price, positioning investors to concentrate on future performance catalysts.
Crypto Momentum Represents Primary Catalyst
Chhugani anticipates Bitcoin has established a floor and expects substantial cryptocurrency market strength beginning in Q2.
His projections show Robinhood’s crypto revenues expanding 23% year-over-year to $1.1 billion in 2026. This segment would comprise approximately 15% of overall revenue expansion. A broader digital asset price recovery during the latter half should energize retail participation and enhance capture rates.
Bitstamp, which Robinhood acquired for $200 million last June, receives particular emphasis. Chhugani characterizes the acquisition as a “key differentiator,” highlighting its rapid scaling in institutional trading activity where it now generates approximately 60% of combined crypto transaction volumes.
Bernstein’s 2026 crypto revenue forecast exceeds Wall Street consensus by 31%. Looking toward 2027, their projections surpass consensus by 18% on revenue and 25% on earnings per share.
Prediction Markets: Fastest-Growing Revenue Stream
Chhugani identifies prediction markets as the most substantial incremental expansion opportunity for Robinhood in 2026.
This segment’s revenue is projected to soar from approximately $150 million in 2025 to roughly $586 million in 2026—representing 286% year-over-year expansion. The category would constitute about 17% of transaction-derived revenues while contributing approximately 30% of aggregate revenue growth.
The analyst highlights an event-packed schedule ahead: the United States hosts the Football World Cup during summer 2026, while midterm elections later that year should stimulate political wagering activity.
Examining broader market dynamics, Robinhood currently captures just 4% of the total addressable brokerage revenue market. The platform’s retail trading revenue market share expanded from 11% in 2024 to 14% in 2025, propelled by diversification into cryptocurrency and prediction market offerings.
Bernstein’s 2026 revenue forecast exceeds consensus by 9%, with earnings per share running 16% higher. For 2027, revenue projections stand 18% above consensus while EPS estimates lead by 25%.
Divergent perspectives exist among other analysts. Truist reduced its price objective to $100 from $120, referencing weaker transaction income. Mizuho adjusted its target downward to $105 from $110, noting softer net interest revenue. Citizens lowered its objective to $155 from $180 following a reduction in Q1 2026 EBITDA projections to $573.1 million, beneath consensus expectations.
Among 17 tracked analysts, 14 assign HOOD a Buy rating while 3 recommend Hold, creating a Strong Buy consensus. The average price objective stands at $104.56, indicating approximately 20% upside potential from present levels.
Q1 earnings release is scheduled for April 28.
