Key Takeaways
- BTC declined 0.4% to approximately $70,475 on Tuesday following contradictory ceasefire reports between Washington and Tehran.
- Wall Street firm Bernstein declares Bitcoin has reached its bottom, characterizing the recent decline as a sentiment adjustment rather than fundamental weakness.
- Crude oil trading above $85–$90 per barrel intensifies inflation concerns, prompting capital rotation toward cash positions and away from risk-on assets.
- The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.10%, marking a nine-month peak, while July rate hike probability surged to 20.5%.
- Since late February when Iran tensions escalated, Bitcoin has delivered 25% superior returns compared to gold, Bernstein reports.
Bitcoin experienced a modest 0.4% decline on Tuesday, settling near $70,475 after surrendering gains from the prior trading session. The price movement followed contradictory statements regarding potential diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran.
Israeli Channel 12 sources indicated that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff alongside Jared Kushner were advancing a ceasefire framework containing 15 distinct provisions. Separate reporting from The New York Times confirmed the United States had transmitted an official proposal to Iranian authorities.
However, Iran’s parliamentary speaker categorically rejected these claims, characterizing the reports as inaccurate. This diplomatic ambiguity maintained markets in a headline-driven state, with participants reacting to unconfirmed information flows.
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President Trump announced Monday he would postpone strikes targeting Iranian energy facilities for a five-day period following discussions he described as “very good and productive.” Despite this announcement, crude oil prices rebounded substantially on Tuesday as uncertainty remained elevated.
Macroeconomic Headwinds Challenge Bitcoin Momentum
Crude oil breaching the $90 threshold has elevated inflation expectations across financial markets. Bond market pricing revealed the implied probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase by July jumped dramatically from 0% to 20.5% within a single week.
The U.S. 5-year Treasury yield advanced to 4.10%, representing the highest level observed in nine months. The S&P 500 index recorded its weakest close in more than six months on Monday as investors rotated aggressively into cash equivalents.
Major technology equities including Google, Meta, and IBM have experienced declines exceeding 10% throughout the past six-week period. Meanwhile, U.S. national debt surpassed the $39 trillion threshold, compounding consumer cost burdens.
Arthur Azizov, founder at B2 Ventures, observed: “There is a growing sense in the market that traditional assets are becoming more speculative than crypto, which is not a positive signal.”
Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Bottom Formation Complete
Despite prevailing market pressures, Bernstein analysts declared their conviction that Bitcoin has completed its bottoming process. Gautam Chhugani and his team stated: “We believe Bitcoin has found its trough and is now heading higher.”
The analysts characterized the recent price weakness as a sentiment recalibration rather than evidence of underlying structural problems. They emphasized that Bitcoin has delivered 25 percentage points of outperformance versus gold since Iran-related tensions intensified in late February.
Bernstein reaffirmed its outperform rating on Strategy with a $450 price objective. The Michael Saylor-led company maintains control of approximately 3.6% of total Bitcoin supply, representing roughly $53.5 billion in current market value.
Polymarket prediction markets show traders assigning high probability to conflict resolution before June 2026.
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Bitcoin tested the $67,500 support zone on Monday. Market observers identify the $66,000 level as a critical technical threshold should inflation and interest rate concerns persist.
