Key Highlights
- Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon highlighted that AI chip momentum “currently shows no signs of slowing,” lifting ASML shares 5.1%
- While Rasgon’s analysis focused on the broader semiconductor sector, market participants quickly linked the implications to ASML
- Bank of America maintained its Buy recommendation with a €1,598 price objective following investor consultations in Asia
- BofA positions ASML as the “prime beneficiary” of expanding EUV technology deployment and increasing memory capital expenditure
- BofA’s €52 billion revenue projection for 2028 appears cautious; the firm anticipates a capital markets update later this year
ASML Holding rallied more than 5% on Monday following a pair of positive analyst assessments that brought renewed attention to the semiconductor equipment manufacturer.
The momentum began with research from Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. His commentary avoided direct reference to ASML — yet investors quickly made the connection.
Rasgon’s analysis centered on the wider AI semiconductor sector, maintaining that demand “currently shows no signs of slowing” even as AI-related equities faced selling pressure throughout the year.
He highlighted Broadcom (AVGO) as particularly promising, projecting the company could potentially multiply its 2025 earnings to exceed $20 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) could expand earnings from below $5 in the prior year to $12 or higher by 2027. ASML shares were changing hands near $1,369 during trading hours, representing approximately 3.9% daily gains.
The Supply Chain Connection to ASML’s Business
The relationship works through sequential stages: accelerating AI chip requirements translate to higher revenues for semiconductor designers including Nvidia and Broadcom. This demand cascades to manufacturing partners like TSMC, which must increase production capabilities. Capacity expansion requires purchasing additional equipment — specifically ASML’s advanced lithography systems.
Rasgon further identified persistent supply limitations stemming from inadequate chip manufacturing output. These conditions create favorable circumstances where demand for ASML’s lithography technology remains robust.
ASML’s current valuation stands at 46.5 times trailing earnings. Analysts project 19% compound annual earnings expansion over the coming five years, and should Rasgon’s AI demand framework prove accurate, this growth trajectory could support current price levels.
Bank of America Projects Strength Through 2027 and Beyond
In a separate research report, Bank of America analyst Didier Scemama shared insights gathered from investor discussions throughout Asia.
His central conclusion: the memory semiconductor cycle is “likely to remain strong through at least 1H27E.” This dynamic underpins ASML’s order pipeline extending into the following year.
BofA identified three primary growth drivers. First, high-NA EUV technology deployment is anticipated for 2028, led by TSMC and SK Hynix. Manufacturing tool availability reached 80% by end-2025 and should approach 90% by end-2026. Scemama’s model incorporates 15 high-NA tool shipments in 2028.
Second, low-NA EUV production capacity is projected to reach maximum utilization by Q4 2027, with 22 tool deliveries scheduled for that year. BofA anticipates ASML may announce expanded EUV manufacturing capacity during 2026.
Third, BofA forecasts ASML will conduct a capital markets presentation later this year and believes the company may elevate its 2030 revenue guidance to a range between €53.7 billion and €65.4 billion.
BofA’s current revenue model for 2028 stands at €52 billion and characterizes this figure as “increasingly conservative” relative to consensus estimates.
BofA retained its Buy rating with an unchanged price objective of €1,598, designating ASML as its preferred selection within the sector.
