Key Takeaways

  • Maelstrom’s Arthur Hayes revealed HYPE as the fund’s top altcoin holding with a $150 valuation target
  • The token experienced an 11.3% price increase over 24 hours, reaching approximately $35
  • Hyperliquid allocates 97% of platform revenue toward HYPE token buybacks according to Hayes
  • Reaching $150 requires $1.4 billion in annual revenue—a milestone Hyperliquid achieved during August 2025
  • Hayes’ conservative valuation model places HYPE at $58, representing approximately 75% upside from current pricing

Arthur Hayes, serving as chief investment officer at Maelstrom, sparked a significant rally in Hyperliquid’s HYPE token on Monday following his announcement that the asset represents his firm’s most substantial altcoin allocation.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price
Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price

In a comprehensive analysis, Hayes outlined his $150 valuation forecast for HYPE while highlighting Hyperliquid’s position as the leading decentralized exchange for perpetual futures contracts.

The token reached approximately $35 during the previous 24-hour trading window. Bitcoin posted gains around 3.1% during this same timeframe, making a brief push toward $70,000 before retreating.

Over the trailing twelve months, HYPE has delivered returns exceeding 100%. Bitcoin has declined roughly 15% during the equivalent period. HYPE currently trades more than 40% below its peak price of $59, which occurred in September 2025.

Hayes’ Investment Thesis For HYPE

According to Hayes, Hyperliquid generates more revenue than any crypto protocol outside the stablecoin sector. The platform dedicates 97% of these earnings to purchasing HYPE tokens directly from secondary markets.

“Hyperliquid returns more capital to token holders than any other crypto project in existence,” Hayes stated in his Substack publication.

Reaching his $150 projection requires Hyperliquid to achieve $1.4 billion in annualized revenue based on 30-day performance—a benchmark the exchange previously hit during August 2025. The forecast also depends on the market applying a 25x earnings multiple instead of the current 12x valuation.

Hayes maintains that Hyperliquid can achieve this target through market share gains alone. Capturing an additional 3.97 percentage points from centralized exchanges would suffice, requiring minimal expansion in the broader crypto derivatives sector.

HIP-3 Framework and Revenue Expansion

Hayes identifies HIP-3, Hyperliquid’s open perpetuals listing system, as a crucial growth mechanism. The framework enables users who stake 500,000 HYPE tokens to create new trading markets on the platform’s infrastructure.

Initial offerings through this system include traditional assets like silver, gold, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 futures. Hayes reports that HIP-3 generated nearly 10% of total Hyperliquid revenue within just four months of deployment.

His financial model projects 160% revenue growth from HIP-3 over a six-month horizon. Hayes also mentions HIP-4, an upcoming permissionless prediction market system, as additional upside potential excluded from his baseline projections.

Addressing dilution concerns, Hayes observes that the development team released approximately 20% of allocated tokens during November and December 2025, then reduced this distribution to roughly 1% for January and February 2026.

Under conservative assumptions—applying a 12x earnings multiple—Hayes calculates HYPE’s fair value at $58. Current market pricing stands at $33.24.