TLDR

  • BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes plans to hold off on Bitcoin investments until the Federal Reserve pivots toward monetary easing
  • BTC currently trades near $69,926, representing a 45% decline from its October peak of $126,000
  • Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran may prompt sell-offs across equities and cryptocurrency markets, according to Hayes
  • Hayes emphasizes that central bank liquidity expansion benefits Bitcoin, while conflict alone does not — his buying strategy hinges on renewed money printing
  • Despite maintaining his $250,000 long-term price forecast for Bitcoin, Hayes acknowledges potential short-term downside pressure

Arthur Hayes, who co-founded the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has made clear he would avoid adding Bitcoin to his portfolio at current levels. During an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast hosted by Natalie Brunell, Hayes outlined his strategy of waiting for a definitive policy shift from the US Federal Reserve.

“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said.

Bitcoin hovers around $69,926 at present. This represents a 45% pullback from the October all-time high of $126,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Hayes identified the escalating US-Iran confrontation as a primary factor driving his cautious approach. The prolonged nature of the geopolitical situation increases the probability that the Federal Reserve will need to expand its balance sheet, according to his analysis.

“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he said.

Hayes drew an important line between military conflict and monetary expansion. While some market participants claim warfare benefits Bitcoin, Hayes rejects this interpretation.

“Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he said. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”

Downside Risk Still on the Table

Hayes also cautioned that Bitcoin might fall beneath the $60,000 threshold should macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further. Such a move could unleash a cascade of forced liquidations.

Bitcoin momentarily dipped to $60,000 on February 6 before recovering modestly. Hayes believes the current valuation leaves space for additional downward movement.

A sustained risk-averse environment in traditional equity markets could pull Bitcoin lower alongside stocks. Hayes argues that widespread market liquidations would likely spill over into cryptocurrency assets.

Other Analysts More Optimistic

Hayes’ defensive positioning stands in contrast to other market observers. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently highlighted a powerful rally in the Nasdaq as an encouraging indicator for Bitcoin.

Van de Poppe said there are “not many arguments left for uncertainty” and expects more upside for Bitcoin and altcoins in the near term.

Hayes leaves room for a potential rebound. He anticipates that few additional years will pass with Bitcoin trading beneath the $100,000 level.

His long-range projection of $250,000 for Bitcoin continues unchanged. Hayes has publicly maintained this forecast since late last year.

Hayes clarified that his current wait-and-see approach stems entirely from macroeconomic considerations rather than any skepticism about Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition.

He emphasized that the critical variable to monitor involves central bank policy transitions from tightening to easing cycles. Once that shift materializes, Hayes indicated he will resume accumulating Bitcoin.

Bitcoin momentarily tested the $60,000 threshold on February 6 before entering a modest upward trajectory, currently trading near $69,926.