Key Highlights
- Clinical trials for Amgen’s GLP-1 therapy MariTide demonstrated approximately 20% weight reduction, matching competitiveness with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound
- The company envisions transitioning MariTide to a quarterly dosing schedule, advancing beyond its present monthly administration
- Truist Securities elevated AMGN’s price objective to $325 from $319, while maintaining its Hold designation
- First-quarter 2026 revenue projections from Truist reach $9.18 billion, exceeding the $8.58 billion consensus estimate
- Market watchers identify opportunity for AMGN to approach its $388 peak, representing 11% upside from present valuation
Shares of Amgen have climbed 25% beginning in April 2025, tracking modestly behind the S&P 500’s 29% advance during the identical timeframe. The biotechnology giant currently commands a forward price-to-earnings multiple hovering around 15x, positioning near the top of its five-year valuation band, alongside a $186.4 billion market capitalization.
The GLP-1 obesity candidate MariTide continues capturing heightened focus from the investment community and market analysts. Clinical participants achieved approximately 20% body weight reduction, establishing competitive positioning against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which produces weight loss outcomes in the low-to-mid 20% territory. MariTide’s performance also surpasses Lilly’s oral formulation Foundayo, where trial participants experienced roughly 12% weight reduction.
During January’s JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Amgen management outlined plans for MariTide to potentially advance toward quarterly administration. This dosing frequency would represent significant progress from the current monthly injection protocol and establish a distinctive advantage relative to Zepbound’s weekly requirement.
Capturing market-leading share in the GLP-1 category remains unnecessary for meaningful financial impact at Amgen. JPMorgan research teams project the global GLP-1 marketplace could expand to $200 billion annually by decade’s end. Should Amgen secure merely $5 billion in MariTide annual sales, this single product would elevate total company revenues by approximately 13%, calculated against analyst projections of $37.8 billion for complete fiscal year 2026.
Phase 3 clinical readouts for MariTide are anticipated during early 2027. Leading up to major data releases, sell-side analysts frequently adjust revenue models upward, moving away from conservative “risk-adjusted” frameworks toward more optimistic baseline scenarios.
Truist Elevates Target Ahead of Q1 Results
Truist Securities increased its AMGN price objective to $325 from $319 during the current week, maintaining its Hold stance. The research firm anticipates first-quarter 2026 revenue reaching $9.18 billion compared to Street consensus of $8.58 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.24 versus consensus of $4.77.
Truist’s quarterly projections exceed consensus across multiple franchise assets including Repatha ($874M), Prolia ($878M), Evenity ($598M), and Tezspire ($487M). The firm simultaneously lifted long-range estimates for Krystexxa following enhanced patent exclusivity extending through 2040.
Truist analysts increased their probability-of-success assessment for MariTide, referencing an enhanced commercially attractive profile within obesity therapeutics.
Established Portfolio Supports Investment Thesis
Looking past the GLP-1 opportunity, Amgen’s established product portfolio demonstrates solid momentum. Fourth-quarter revenues exceeded analyst projections, while earnings surpassed forecasts by nearly 12%. The management team has delivered above-consensus earnings in 17 of the preceding 20 reporting periods. Aggregate revenue growth is projected at approximately 3% for 2026, supported by multiple recently launched therapies in early commercialization phases.
Amgen completed a $4 billion debt refinancing at reduced interest rates during recent months. This financial restructuring constrains future expense growth, creating conditions where incremental MariTide revenues could translate more efficiently into bottom-line expansion.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintains a Neutral view with a $350 valuation target. William Blair reaffirmed its Outperform recommendation following successful Phase 3 outcomes for TEPEZZA, Amgen’s thyroid eye disease treatment, which achieved a 77% proptosis response compared with 19.6% in the placebo arm.
The all-time peak for AMGN shares reached $388 earlier during the current year. That level sits approximately 11% above present trading prices.
