Key Points
- Six recently established Polymarket wallets collectively generated $1 million through successful predictions of a US strike against Iran before February 28, 2026.
- These wallets received funding and became active within 24 hours of military operations, purchasing shares mere hours before Tehran reported explosions.
- The top-performing wallet converted a ~$61,000 position into profits exceeding $493,000.
- Bubblemaps, an analytics firm, identified these accounts as “suspected insiders,” while acknowledging definitive proof remains elusive.
- Representative Ritchie Torres is developing legislation to prohibit federal officials from trading prediction market contracts related to government policy.
Six recently established crypto wallets generated nearly $1 million on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, through successful bets that the United States would strike Iran before February 28, 2026 — with the majority of positions entered hours before Tehran confirmed the first explosions.
Bubblemaps, an onchain analytics firm, identified these six wallets after detecting a pattern of questionable timing. The accounts were established and received funding within 24 hours of the military strikes, and each purchased “yes” shares on the Polymarket contract titled “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?”
President Donald Trump announced “massive and ongoing” military operations against Iran, which the Department of War designated as “Operation Epic Fury.” Israel participated in the joint strikes.
The highest-earning wallet purchased 560,680 “yes” shares at approximately 10.8 cents per share, investing roughly $61,000. Upon contract resolution, this position generated over $493,000 in profit.
A second wallet operating under the name “Planktonbets” secured $173,907 across seven different predictions. This account had previously placed smaller unsuccessful bets on earlier strike dates, indicating multiple attempts to identify the precise timing.
An account labeled “Dicedicedice” placed a single bet and earned $119,964 — representing a 400% return. Another wallet, “Neodbs,” recorded the highest percentage gain among all flagged accounts at 900%, transforming $9,884 into nearly $89,000.
Two additional wallets, “nothingeverhappens911” and an unidentified account, earned $66,436 and $45,556 respectively. All six accounts have subsequently liquidated their positions entirely.
Significant Losses for Contrarian Trader
Profits were far from universal. A trader identified as “anoin123” had accumulated over $2 million by betting against strikes during previous months. After the attacks occurred, this account experienced a $6.5 million single-day loss, shifting from a $2 million profit to a $4.5 million loss, according to data from onchain analytics firm Lookonchain.
Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, informed The Block: “It’s almost impossible to be 100% certain in these cases, but given the size of the bets, the freshly funded wallets, and the timing, it felt convincing enough to share.”
The family of “US strikes Iran” contracts generated over $529 million in total trading volume on Polymarket since December 2025. The February 28 contract specifically attracted approximately $90 million.
Multiple Incidents of Questionable Trading Activity
This situation represents another instance where Polymarket has encountered concerns regarding advance information. In January, a newly established wallet placed a $32,000 bet on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at 7 cents per share, securing over $400,000 before the information became publicly available.
Earlier this month, Israeli prosecutors charged an IDF reservist and a civilian with allegedly utilizing classified military intelligence to place bets on Polymarket’s markets connected to Israel’s strike on Iran during the June 2025 Twelve-Day War. The individuals reportedly earned over $150,000 combined.
Days before the Iran strike, accounts with suspected advance knowledge generated over $1 million on a Polymarket contract connected to a blockchain investigation concerning crypto platform Axiom.
US Representative Ritchie Torres has presented the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which would prohibit federal officials from trading prediction market contracts connected to government policy using nonpublic information. Kalshi, a competing platform, has publicly supported the bill, with its CEO noting that regulated prediction markets are prohibited from operating war markets.
