TLDR
- Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings announcement scheduled for March 5, 2026
- Shares have gained 13.6% in 2026 following a roughly 6% decline during 2025
- Wall Street forecasts earnings per share of $4.55 versus $4.02 last year, with revenue projected at $69.25 billion
- Strong Buy rating consensus among analysts with mean price target at $1,081.57
- Forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 49.6 compared to sector mean of 18.9
Costco approaches its second-quarter fiscal earnings announcement on March 5 with significant positive momentum.
Following approximately 6% losses throughout 2025, shares have staged an impressive comeback — climbing 13.6% during 2026. This turnaround has captured considerable attention from market analysts.
Costco Wholesale Corporation, COST
Wall Street expects Q2 earnings to reach $4.55 per share, representing growth from $4.02 during the equivalent period last year. Revenue projections point to $69.25 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year advance.
Recent sales figures entering the earnings period have shown promise. January net sales totaled approximately $21 billion, reflecting 9.3% growth compared to the prior year.
During the initial 22 weeks of the fiscal period, sales increased 8.5% year-over-year. Comparable sales expansion has remained consistent throughout different geographic markets.
Online commerce has emerged as a particularly strong performer. Digital channel sales have expanded at double-digit rates, though any deceleration in this segment might concern market participants.
Membership expansion represents another critical metric. Growing membership rolls — partially fueled by inflation driving additional shoppers toward value-oriented retailers — have provided consistent support. Kirkland Signature, the retailer’s private label brand, maintains customer loyalty while supporting competitive positioning.
Analyst Views
Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone maintained his Buy rating on COST before the earnings release and established a $1,185 price objective. He emphasizes Costco’s broad demographic appeal — resonating with affluent consumers while simultaneously attracting budget-conscious shoppers through its pricing approach.
Citi’s Steven Zaccone adopted a more reserved position, keeping a Hold rating while modestly increasing his price objective from $990 to $1,000.
The broader Wall Street consensus establishes Strong Buy sentiment, supported by 19 Buy recommendations, four Holds, and one Sell. The mean price objective of $1,081.57 suggests approximately 7% appreciation potential from present levels. The most optimistic Street target reaches $1,205, representing potential gains approaching 20%.
The Valuation Question
Costco’s decade-long total return of 662% has exceeded S&P 500 performance by more than double. Revenue has expanded at a 9.3% compound annual rate across the past five years, maintaining positive growth throughout this period.
This performance history commands a premium valuation. COST currently carries a forward P/E of 49.6, while the sector average sits at 18.9. The trailing P/E reaches 53.6 — approximately 15% higher than Nvidia’s multiple.
Certain investors view this premium as elevated. Any shortfall in comparable sales figures or weaker membership growth data could trigger significant selling pressure.
Q1 2026 net sales totaled $66 billion. The retailer’s operational scale — purchasing substantial volumes of a curated product selection — provides negotiating leverage with suppliers while maintaining competitive pricing for customers.
