Key Takeaways
- Nvidia reports Q4 FY26 earnings on February 25, with analysts expecting 68% revenue growth to $66.1 billion.
- Wedbush reiterates Buy with a $230 price target, citing strong AI chip demand and a “dominant share position.”
- Wall Street consensus is Strong Buy, with an average price target of $265.07 — implying ~39% upside.
- Risks include competition from hyperscaler-designed chips, TSMC supply constraints, and a potential pullback in AI spending.
- NVDA stock is up just ~2% in 2026 after gaining over 40% in 2025.
Nvidia prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter FY26 financial results on February 25, marking a pivotal moment for investors across the technology sector.
Wall Street analysts project adjusted earnings per share of $1.54, representing more than 70% growth compared to $0.89 during the same period last year. Revenue forecasts point to a 68% year-over-year increase, reaching $66.1 billion.
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson maintained his Buy rating before the earnings release, setting a price target of $230. This target suggests approximately 20% appreciation potential from present trading levels.
Bryson highlighted Nvidia’s reliable supply chain infrastructure as a significant competitive advantage and anticipates the company will surpass estimates while providing guidance that exceeds Wall Street projections.
His analysis forecasts 66% year-over-year revenue expansion for the complete fiscal 2026 period, with the Data Center segment alone projected to deliver nearly $191 billion. This division achieved 142% year-over-year growth, reaching $115.2 billion in FY25.
Truist Securities maintained its Buy stance with a $275 price target. The firm anticipates Q4 revenue of $66.07 billion and EPS of $1.53, aligning with broader consensus estimates.
Truist highlighted sustained strength in AI infrastructure demand, noting cloud service providers continue adjusting their spending projections upward. Book-to-bill ratios show improvement throughout the sector.
Looking ahead to Q1 FY27, consensus estimates project $72.7 billion in revenue — representing 60% year-over-year growth.
Rising Competitive Pressures
Analysts acknowledge emerging challenges to Nvidia’s market dominance. Hyperscalers have accelerated development of proprietary AI chip solutions, creating potential long-term headwinds.
Google has positioned itself as a significant competitor, engaging in discussions to provide Meta — currently among Nvidia’s largest customers — with its internally developed TPU chips. AMD plans to introduce a new flagship AI server solution later this year.
Nvidia secured an agreement valued at approximately $20 billion to license chip technology from Groq, a transaction analysts believe reinforces its standing in AI inference applications.
Last week, Nvidia finalized an arrangement to deliver millions of chips to Meta, though specific financial terms remain undisclosed.
Manufacturing Capacity and China Market Dynamics
The primary growth limitation may stem from production capabilities rather than market demand. Nvidia faces competition with industry peers for access to TSMC’s 3-nanometer manufacturing capacity, potentially affecting delivery timelines.
“We think Nvidia will meet expectations, but it is hard to see them delivering much upside in light of TSMC capacity,” wrote Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners.
China represents a possible growth catalyst. CEO Jensen Huang indicated last month his expectation to restart H200 chip sales in that market, with an export license reportedly nearing finalization. AMD has already secured authorization to ship modified chip versions to China.
NVDA stock has advanced 2.7% during 2026 thus far, marking a significant deceleration following its surge of over 40% throughout 2025. Market sentiment has faced pressure from concerns regarding ASIC competition, data center financing questions, and the DeepSeek developments earlier this year.
Wall Street maintains a Strong Buy consensus — 32 Buy ratings against one Sell rating. The average price target stands at $265.07, suggesting approximately 39% upside potential.
