Key Takeaways
- Circle Internet (CRCL) shares touched $90 temporarily before stabilizing around $87, riding a ~30% rally that began Wednesday after earnings
- Fourth quarter 2025 earnings per share reached $0.43, surpassing the $0.35 estimate; revenue totaled $770 million, representing 77% growth versus the prior year
- Bernstein maintained its Outperform stance with a $190 target, describing performance as a “clear divergence from crypto”
- Mizuho lifted its forecast to $90 from $77 while maintaining a Neutral stance, highlighting interest-rate reductions as a possible challenge
- William Blair and Clear Street released optimistic commentary; Clear Street elevated its target to $92 from $85
Circle Internet Group shares pushed above $90 temporarily on Thursday before stabilizing near $87.
The move followed a powerful 30% rally on Wednesday triggered by robust fourth-quarter financial results.
Fourth Quarter Performance
Circle delivered Q4 2025 earnings per share of $0.43, exceeding the $0.35 consensus by approximately 23%. Revenue reached $770 million, marking 77% growth compared to the same period last year.
The performance prompted multiple Wall Street analysts to reassess their outlooks, each offering distinct perspectives on the company’s trajectory.
Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform designation and maintained its $190 price target. The firm characterized the quarter as a “clear divergence from crypto,” highlighting stronger transaction revenue and expanding blockchain rewards from Circle’s super validator role on the Canton network.
A particularly notable metric from Bernstein: USDC held directly on Circle’s platform increased to 17% of total supply in Q4, climbing from 14% in the previous quarter.
Circle management indicated expectations for USDC in circulation to compound at 40% per year, with additional revenue streams projected to reach $170 million in 2026, advancing from $110 million in 2025.
Mixed Perspectives on Future Potential
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins elevated their price target to $90 from $77 while maintaining a Neutral rating.
They highlighted prediction markets like Polymarket as a “visible, scaled USDC use case,” driving substantial transaction volumes that bolster both revenue and reserve balances. Management identified Polymarket as a significant contributor to recent USDC expansion.
Mizuho also recognized “agentic AI” — autonomous software agents utilizing internet-native money — as a potential long-term catalyst for USDC demand, acknowledging that present volumes remain modest.
The firm cautioned that prospective interest-rate reductions represent a challenge. Reserve income continues to constitute the majority of Circle’s revenue, making that segment vulnerable to any rate decreases.
Additional Analyst Commentary
William Blair reaffirmed an Outperform rating and suggested long-term investors should evaluate position building.
The firm views USDC developing as the leading commerce-focused stablecoin, supported by 100% fiat reserves, regulatory adherence, and network effects. William Blair referenced an approximately $20 trillion cross-border B2B payment market as the long-term prize, while recognizing that complete commercialization visibility remains limited.
Analysts project 62% revenue expansion for Circle in the current fiscal year.
Clear Street elevated its price target to $92 from $85 while retaining a Hold rating, pointing to improved fundamentals following the “strong” quarterly performance.
Circle currently trades around $81.88 with a market capitalization of $14.45 billion, though shares remain down approximately 51% over the past six months.
According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Bernstein cited Circle’s Arc product, the Circle Payments Network, and emerging agentic payments capabilities as key areas of product development heading into 2026.
