TLDR
- Bitcoin recovered above $65,000 on Wednesday following a rally in Asian equities and weakness in the U.S. dollar
- A potential double-bottom pattern is developing across the crypto market, suggesting 10% upside potential if support holds or 25% downside if broken
- Weekly RSI for Bitcoin declined to 25.71, matching deeply oversold territory last observed in July 2022
- Digital assets received no mention during Trump’s State of the Union address, with crypto rallies losing momentum throughout his speech
- Concentration of $230 million in put options at the $58,000 strike price for March 6 expiration shows traders seeking downside hedges
Bitcoin pushed above $65,000 on Wednesday, driven by weakness in the U.S. dollar and strength across Asian equity markets that delivered the cleanest upward momentum crypto has seen in recent weeks.
BTC reached peak levels near $66,000 during Asian trading sessions, marking its strongest intraday performance since February 13. The rally moderated to approximately $65,400 as momentum cooled while President Trump delivered his State of the Union address.
Ether advanced more than 2.5% to trade around $1,906. Solana posted gains reaching 7% while XRP climbed approximately 3.5% during the same timeframe.
The aggregate crypto market capitalization had fallen to $2.19 trillion earlier in the week, approaching the depths reached during the February 5 downturn.
FxPro analysts identify a potential double-bottom pattern developing across the market. Support at current levels could deliver approximately 10% upside, while failure would trigger a further 25% decline according to FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich.
Caroline Mauron from Orbit Markets characterized the early rally as dip-buying activity following prolonged selling pressure. She emphasized that a move toward $70,000 would be necessary to change the prevailing market sentiment.
Oversold Signals Build
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen to 25.71, matching levels last observed in July 2022. Historical data shows RSI readings below 28 have frequently coincided with market reversals and attractive entry points for buyers.
Alex Thorn, head of Galaxy Research, noted Bitcoin is “nearing all-time oversold territory,” with the weekly RSI lower than virtually any period outside of severe bear market conditions.
Bitcoin currently trades within 9% of its 200-week exponential moving average at $58,855, a threshold traders have identified as signaling the beginning of bottom formation during previous market cycles.
Analyst Rekt Capital provided a more reserved perspective. He indicated that the confirmed daily close beneath the 200-EMA could transform that threshold into resistance during any subsequent recovery attempts.
Material Indicators, a market analytics resource, highlighted a $4.5 million spot purchase by whale buyers on Tuesday, exceeding the standard $1 to $2 million order sizes typically observed from this cohort.
Trump Speech Disappoints Crypto Markets
Momentum began eroding before Trump concluded his remarks. Digital assets received no acknowledgment during his address despite his reputation for supporting the crypto sector.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency powers framework for imposing reciprocal tariffs earlier this week, a development that had already pressured crypto valuations. Trump subsequently announced plans to implement 15% global tariffs through alternative legal mechanisms.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined modestly following the speech, a development that has historically supported Bitcoin, though this correlation has shown inconsistency during the current downturn.
Put options totaling nearly $230 million with March 6 expiration are concentrated at the $58,000 strike price. Sean McNulty from FalconX attributed this positioning to anxieties surrounding a possible U.S. military action against Iran, with Polymarket probabilities at 48% by March 15.
