Key Takeaways
- Bernstein anticipates prediction market volumes will climb to $240 billion in 2026 and reach $1 trillion by decade’s end
- Leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have recorded $60 billion in volume during early 2026 — surpassing the entire 2025 total
- Kalshi’s weekly trading activity has surged from $100 million to over $3 billion within a 12-month period
- Blockchain adoption and clearer federal oversight are identified as primary catalysts for expansion
- Robinhood and Coinbase stand out as leading publicly traded investment vehicles for sector exposure
The prediction market sector stands poised to achieve trillion-dollar status before 2030 concludes, based on fresh analysis from Bernstein, a prominent investment firm.
Bernstein’s research team projects total prediction market activity will surge to $240 billion throughout 2026 — representing a 370% increase over the previous year. With a compound annual growth rate hovering around 80%, the firm anticipates annual volumes will cross the $1 trillion threshold by 2030.
The two dominant forces in this arena, Kalshi and Polymarket, have accumulated approximately $60 billion in market activity during the opening months of 2026 alone. This figure already exceeds the $51 billion total volume recorded throughout the entirety of 2025.
Kalshi commands over 90% of the prediction market landscape within the United States. The platform’s weekly trading activity has expanded dramatically from approximately $100 million one year prior to exceeding $3 billion currently.
Bank of America’s Julie Hoover designated Kalshi as among the “fastest growing non-AI companies” operating in America. She observed that the platform’s expansion rates match those witnessed during the artificial intelligence surge.
Forces Fueling Market Expansion
Prediction markets began capturing significant attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle. Momentum accelerated throughout 2025 as contracts covering sports outcomes, cryptocurrency movements, and macroeconomic indicators attracted substantial trader interest.
Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani identifies three primary expansion catalysts: clearer federal regulatory frameworks, strategic partnerships with mainstream distribution channels, and superior liquidity relative to state-regulated betting platforms.
Blockchain infrastructure continues contributing meaningfully to growth. The technology facilitates worldwide liquidity pools and empowers platforms to create contracts covering highly specialized or narrow-focus events, simultaneously reducing entry barriers for institutional capital.
Chhugani anticipates the contract composition will evolve considerably. Sports-related contracts currently represent over 60% of trading volume, though he projects this proportion will decline to approximately 30% by 2030 as institutional contracts spanning economics, political events, and corporate matters expand their presence.
Additional market participants continue emerging. Robinhood, DraftKings, and Underdog have either introduced or are actively developing proprietary prediction market offerings.
Legal Landscape Remains Complex
The industry faces ongoing legal complexities. Litigation is currently active across 14 U.S. states, while four separate congressional bills remain under consideration. Primary concerns encompass insider trading risks and jurisdictional authority questions regarding platform oversight.
Certain state authorities maintain they possess regulatory jurisdiction over sports-related prediction contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission counters these claims, asserting exclusive federal authority throughout the sector.
Chhugani maintains confidence that these obstacles will fail to disrupt long-term trajectory. He observes platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket gaining advantages from improving coordination with federal regulators such as the SEC and CFTC.
Robinhood’s prediction markets division recently celebrated its first anniversary and currently produces $350 million in annual recurring revenue. The segment represents roughly 30% of Kalshi’s aggregate volume and ranks as Robinhood’s most rapidly expanding business unit.
Chhugani identified Robinhood and Coinbase as the primary publicly traded investment vehicles for those seeking exposure to privately held prediction market enterprises.
