Key Takeaways
- GF Securities upgraded Broadcom (AVGO) price target to $450 based on increased Google TPU shipment projections
- Revised TPU shipment estimates reach 4.5M units in 2026 and 7.9M in 2027, exceeding prior 6M forecast
- Broadcom’s Ironwood and Sunfish chips currently lead the market as the sole SKUs available for customer evaluation
- CEO Hock Tan outlined visibility toward exceeding $100B in AI-related revenue by 2027
- Wall Street researchers indicate the $100B projection could be understated, with potential reaching $180B–$200B
Broadcom (AVGO) posted a share price of $320.55, climbing 0.71%, during Wednesday’s morning trading session.
The semiconductor giant has captured renewed Wall Street interest following GF Securities’ price target increase and growing debate over whether Broadcom‘s own $100B AI revenue projection for 2027 significantly underestimates actual potential.
GF Securities analyst Alicia Xia elevated her price target on Broadcom to $450 from a previous level, maintaining a Buy rating. This adjustment follows her upward revision of Google TPU shipment forecasts.
Her updated model anticipates total TPU units reaching 4.5M in 2026 and 7.9M in 2027. The 2027 projection represents a substantial increase from her previous 6M unit estimate, primarily attributed to anticipated external sales expansion.
Broadcom-specific TPU units are forecast at 4.1M in 2026 and 5.8M in 2027. The company’s Ironwood and Sunfish chips stand as the only SKUs presently available for customer evaluation. MediaTek’s competing Zebrafish chip has yet to enter the testing phase, positioning Broadcom ahead in the market.
Xia anticipates average selling prices will continue their upward trajectory, with Broadcom’s forthcoming Pumafish chip expected to exceed $20,000 in 2027 due to enhanced design complexity.
The $100B Debate
The more significant development centers on whether Broadcom’s internal AI revenue projection substantially undervalues future performance.
During the company’s March 4 earnings call, CEO Hock Tan stated Broadcom maintains “line of sight” to surpassing $100B in AI revenue by 2027. While impressive on its surface, analysts challenged this figure — arguing for a higher estimate rather than questioning its achievability.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon attempted to establish a more specific projection using gigawatts — representing data center power capacity — as a measurement framework. He compiled Broadcom’s confirmed customer commitments: 3 GW from Anthropic, 1 GW from OpenAI, a minimum of 2 GW from Meta, and at least 3 GW from Google. His calculation totals approximately 9–10 GW for 2027.
Tan validated this assessment, confirming Broadcom is “seeing it getting close to 10 gigawatts” in 2027.
Rasgon subsequently applied his revenue-per-GW calculation of approximately $20B. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya supported this metric, referencing Broadcom’s 2026 Anthropic deployment — 1 GW projected to generate $20B in revenue.
Using $20B per GW across 10 GW, the calculation produces a range between $180B and $200B — substantially exceeding the official guidance.
Tan offered minimal resistance to this analysis. He acknowledged per-GW revenue varies by customer but conceded the estimate is “not far off.”
Supply Chain Secured Through 2028
Broadcom has locked in supplies of advanced-node wafers, high-bandwidth memory, substrates, and T-glass extending through 2028 — reaching one year beyond its published forecast timeframe.
Melius analyst Ben Reitzes observed Broadcom appears to be the first company securing these critical components for such an extended period.
The current Wall Street consensus price target on AVGO stands at $435.30, suggesting approximately 36% upside potential from present levels, based on 33 analyst ratings.
