Key Highlights
- Samsung forecasted Q1 2026 operating profit at 57.2 trillion won ($37.8 billion), representing an increase of more than eight times compared to the prior year.
- The company anticipates revenue will climb nearly 70% to reach 133 trillion won during the January–March quarter.
- AI chip demand has created supply shortages across memory markets, leading to significant price escalation.
- The company has made progress competing with SK Hynix in the high-bandwidth memory sector, delivering HBM4 products to Nvidia starting in February.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East present potential challenges, including possible disruptions to helium supplies and increased energy expenses.
Samsung announced Q1 2026 operating profit expectations of 57.2 trillion won — representing an increase of more than eight times over the corresponding quarter last year — significantly exceeding analyst consensus figures of approximately 40–42 trillion won from LSEG SmartEstimate.
Should these figures hold, the result would approach triple Samsung’s prior record quarterly profit of 20 trillion won, achieved in Q4 of the previous year. The projected earnings would also surpass the company’s combined operating profit for the entirety of 2025.
Quarterly revenue projections stand at 133 trillion won, marking a 68% increase year-over-year. Full confirmation of these preliminary figures will arrive when Samsung releases comprehensive earnings details on April 30.
The performance was predominantly fueled by Samsung’s memory semiconductor division. Demand for AI infrastructure has generated widespread shortages throughout the memory sector, driving contract prices substantially upward. Research firm TrendForce anticipates contract DRAM pricing will increase by more than 50% during the present quarter.
A Meritz Securities analyst calculated that Samsung’s memory semiconductor operations produced approximately 54 trillion won in operating profit for the quarter. The logic chip segments recorded losses near 1.6 trillion won. The mobile business unit generated roughly 4 trillion won in profit, showing a modest decline compared to the same period last year.
Progress Made in High-Bandwidth Memory Competition
Twelve months earlier, Samsung’s CEO delivered a public statement acknowledging the company’s earnings challenges and its position trailing competitor SK Hynix in providing high-bandwidth memory products to Nvidia. That competitive distance has begun narrowing.
Samsung commenced deliveries of its newest HBM4 chips to Nvidia in February. Nevertheless, HBM products represented under 10% of Samsung’s DRAM chip revenue during Q1, according to Heungkuk Securities analysis. The primary driver behind the profit expansion came from conventional DRAM demand stimulated by AI inference applications, which have intensified constraints across commodity memory supplies.
Heungkuk Securities analysts project Samsung’s total operating profit will achieve another milestone of 75 trillion won in Q2, supported by an anticipated 30%+ increase in DRAM pricing.
The company gained additional advantages from a depreciated South Korean won, which has approached a 17-year low versus the U.S. dollar. This currency position has enhanced the value of overseas earnings converted back home.
Geopolitical Tensions Create Market Uncertainty
The continuing U.S.-Israel military engagement with Iran has introduced risk factors for the semiconductor sector. Potential interruptions to supplies of essential semiconductor manufacturing materials — particularly helium — could impact production capacity at firms including Samsung and SK Hynix.
Elevated energy expenses connected to the regional conflict have sparked concerns about possible deceleration in AI data center demand during the year’s latter half.
Spot DRAM pricing declined modestly in recent trading, with TrendForce observing that end customers faced difficulties accommodating higher price levels. Google’s March introduction of TurboQuant, a memory-optimization technology, applied additional downward pressure, contributing to a market correction that has reduced Samsung’s share value by roughly 9% since military operations commenced on February 28.
Despite recent declines, Samsung’s equity position remains elevated by more than 60% year-to-date in 2026, following a 125% appreciation during 2025.
Competing manufacturer SK Hynix concluded Tuesday’s session 3.4% higher.
