TLDR
- Emanuel Fabian, an Israeli military correspondent, faced death threats from Polymarket users attempting to manipulate his coverage of an Iranian missile strike
- A Polymarket contract concerning whether Iran struck Israel on March 10 attracted more than $17 million in wagers
- Fabian submitted a police complaint and maintained his original reporting
- Polymarket removed the accounts responsible and provided their information to law enforcement
- Congressional legislators have proposed the “Death Bets Act” to prohibit prediction market contracts related to warfare and political assassinations
A military correspondent in Israel faced intimidation from users of Polymarket following his coverage of an Iranian missile strike that landed near Beit Shemesh on March 10, 2026.
Emanuel Fabian, who reports on military affairs for The Times of Israel, published details about an Iranian missile impacting an unpopulated area close to the city. His article became central to a controversy surrounding a $17 million wager on Polymarket concerning Iranian strikes on Israel during that specific day.
The betting contract’s terms specified that a “yes” outcome required Iran to launch missiles, drones, or conduct airstrikes on Israeli territory. However, an additional provision stated that intercepted projectiles would result in a “no” resolution.
Individuals who had placed “no” bets started reaching out to Fabian, demanding he modify his article to indicate the missile had been intercepted instead of reaching the ground.
Fabian described receiving emails, telephone calls, and communications through various platforms requesting alterations to his reporting.
An individual using the name “Haim” delivered threatening communications in Hebrew, warning Fabian he would experience harm he could “never imagine,” that he had created “enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable,” and that they would “finish” him.
Haim additionally revealed private information concerning Fabian’s family and residential area.
Fabian filed a complaint with law enforcement, prompting an official investigation.
A journalist from a different publication informed Fabian that someone had contacted them offering a portion of potential winnings in return for convincing Fabian to modify his reporting.
Fabian rejected every appeal and confirmed his coverage relied on official statements from Israeli emergency services and military officials.
Polymarket Removes Accounts, Law Enforcement Informed
Polymarket published a statement on X describing the conduct as “a violation of our Terms of Service” and announced it had removed all associated accounts. The platform confirmed it would provide user data to appropriate authorities.
The Israeli Defense Forces subsequently verified that the missile landing outside Beit Shemesh had reached the ground without interception, validating Fabian’s initial coverage.
Congressional Lawmakers Introduce Legislation Targeting War-Related Prediction Markets
This incident has intensified ongoing discussions in Washington regarding prediction markets connected to warfare and international conflicts.
Senator Adam Schiff and Representative Mike Levin recently unveiled the “Death Bets Act,” legislation designed to prohibit prediction market contracts associated with warfare, political assassinations, or deaths.
Senator Chris Murphy has introduced separate legislation to ban contracts connected to government military operations following a Bubblemaps investigation revealing wallets that earned approximately $1 million wagering on US military strikes against Iran immediately before their occurrence.
Polymarket recently discontinued a contract allowing users to bet on nuclear weapon detonations during the current year following public criticism.
Despite ongoing controversies, trading activity continues expanding. Kalshi reported approximately $10.4 billion in trading volume during February 2026. Polymarket processed roughly $7.9 billion throughout the same period.
Both platforms combined are tracking toward a seventh straight monthly record of approximately $20 billion in total trading volume.
