Key Takeaways
- Grayscale Research identifies Bitcoin’s cycle low between $65,000 and $70,000 during February 2026
- On-chain metrics indicate recent purchasers approaching breakeven around $74,000
- Bitcoin reached a 3-month peak at $78,417 following Trump’s US-Iran ceasefire extension
- The Bitcoin Bull Score Index registered neutral status for the first time during this downturn
- Market observers including Benjamin Cowen and CryptoQuant anticipate a lower price point arriving later in 2026
Grayscale Research has declared Bitcoin’s cycle bottom established. According to the firm, BTC already reached its lowest point within the $65,000 to $70,000 corridor during February 2026. Several prominent analysts hold opposing views.
Zach Pandl, who leads research at Grayscale and previously served as a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs, referenced on-chain metrics to support this assessment. Bitcoin surged over 20% from its February 5 trough around $63,000, pushing recent purchasers close to their entry points.
The primary indicator Grayscale examined is the realized price metric. This measurement calculates the average acquisition cost of coins according to their most recent blockchain movement. For tokens that transferred ownership during the previous one to three months, this realized price stands at approximately $74,000 — marginally below Bitcoin’s current trading level.
“Should Bitcoin’s value continue climbing in the upcoming days, additional recent purchasers would transition into profitable territory, potentially signaling the initial stage of a bull market,” Pandl stated.
Bitcoin reached a 3-month peak of $78,417 on April 22, 2026. This upward movement coincided with President Donald Trump’s decision to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, driving oil prices beneath $90 per barrel. BTC traded around $77,990 at press time, with 24-hour trading volume increasing 14%.
Bull Market Indicator Registers First Notable Change
Julio Moreno, who heads research at CryptoQuant, reported that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has transitioned into neutral range for the first occurrence throughout this bearish period. While this development merits attention, Moreno highlighted a similar brief occurrence in March 2022 before Bitcoin’s price continued declining.
Derivatives markets displayed bullish signals as well. Aggregate BTC futures open interest expanded almost 6% to $59.53 billion within 24 hours. CME open interest grew approximately 1% while Binance registered a 6% increase.
10x Research observed that April spot Bitcoin ETF flows demonstrate bullish characteristics, despite funding rates maintaining negative territory and volumes staying subdued. The research firm additionally noted that institutional accumulation appears earlier in this cycle compared to the previous two recovery phases.
Competing Analysts Maintain Deeper Correction Outlook
Grayscale’s perspective faces disagreement from other market researchers. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA analyst, shared with BeInCrypto that his primary scenario places the cycle bottom in October 2026. He explained that an earlier trough would require capitulation far exceeding typical mid-term year patterns.
“Bitcoin may reach its low sooner, potentially as early as May. However, for that scenario to materialize, the market would need to experience substantial capitulation significantly below what historical data shows for midterm years,” Cowen explained.
Joao Wedson, who runs on-chain analytics platform Alphractal, projects a bottom in late September or early October 2026. CryptoQuant has outlined a wider timeframe spanning June through December 2026, identifying September to November as the highest probability window.
Bitcoin recently breached analyst Benjamin Cowen’s bear-market resistance threshold on the weekly timeframe. This level has traditionally indicated significant inflection points for the digital asset.
