Key Points
- Morgan Stanley elevated ARWR to Overweight status, establishing a $100 price objective from the previous $78 level
- Plozasiran Phase 3 results for severe hypertriglyceridemia are anticipated during the third quarter of 2026
- BofA increased its price objective, projecting approximately $3 billion in peak revenue potential for the therapy
- Morgan Stanley analyst forecasts plozasiran could reach $3.2 billion in peak annual sales, revised upward from $1.7 billion
- ARWR shares have climbed 8.2% in 2025 while posting a 481% gain over the trailing twelve months
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) has delivered exceptional performance throughout the past year, gaining 481%. The stock rose an additional 3.9% on Tuesday, finishing at $71.92 following a Morgan Stanley upgrade paired with an elevated price target of $100.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc., ARWR
The $100 price objective suggests potential upside of 39% from present levels. Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Ulz elevated the shares to Overweight from Equal-weight, pointing to forthcoming Phase 3 data he anticipates will “unlock a multibillion-dollar opportunity that remains underappreciated.”
The primary catalyst centers on plozasiran, Arrowhead’s flagship drug candidate currently in trials for patients suffering from severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG) — a medical condition characterized by dangerously elevated blood fat levels that increase cardiovascular disease and pancreatitis risk.
Phase 3 results are scheduled for release during Q3 2026. Drawing on earlier trial outcomes and research involving similar patient groups, Ulz indicated he anticipates favorable results. Strong data would represent a pivotal moment for the organization.
Morgan Stanley was joined by other financial institutions in raising their forecasts. BofA similarly increased its price objective, projecting peak market potential near $3 billion for plozasiran in SHTG treatment — indicating growing analyst conviction regarding the drug’s commercial prospects.
Ulz revised his peak sales projection from $1.7 billion upward to $3.2 billion. This substantial increase reflects mounting confidence in the drug’s potential utilization breadth, particularly among high-risk pancreatitis patients.
Competitive Landscape With Ionis
Arrowhead faces competition in this therapeutic area. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) is pursuing SHTG treatment with olezarsen. Ulz noted that Ionis “has set the price” within this market segment.
Olezarsen currently holds approval exclusively for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, though it carries Breakthrough Therapy designation. A supplemental filing is undergoing accelerated review with a target decision date of June 30.
Despite competitive pressures, Ulz identifies opportunity for both therapies. He views plozasiran as having substantial standalone promise, particularly within the pancreatitis patient segment.
Regulatory Submission and Development Pipeline
Arrowhead submitted its inaugural New Drug Application for plozasiran during late 2024. This regulatory filing represented a significant milestone — transitioning the organization from research-oriented biotech toward commercial-stage operations.
The organization maintains extensive RNA interference expertise. It acquired Roche’s RNAi operations in 2011, followed by purchasing RNAi assets from Novartis during 2015. Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen division maintained partnership status through 2023, when Janssen reduced its infectious disease and vaccine initiatives.
Among the 12 analyst firms monitored by FactSet providing ARWR coverage, 10 assign Buy ratings or equivalent recommendations. Only two firms — Leerink Partners and Bernstein Research — maintain Hold ratings.
ARWR has advanced 8.2% during 2025. Ionis, for context, has declined 6.2% in 2026 while posting 156% gains over the preceding 12 months.
The company’s present market capitalization stands at $9.94 billion.
