Key Highlights
- Onsemi reached a fresh 52-week peak at $99.64, climbing 145% year-over-year
- B. Riley shifted rating to Buy while lifting price objective from $64 to $115
- Analyst Craig Ellis sees the cyclical bottom now in the rearview mirror
- First quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for May 4, with revenue projected at $1.435B–$1.535B
- Baird reports Onsemi MOSFET delivery windows now extending to 26 weeks
ON Semiconductor shares have surged dramatically. The stock reached $99.64 during this week’s trading session, marking a fresh 52-week peak and capping off a remarkable 145% advance over the trailing twelve months.
ON Semiconductor Corporation, ON
This rally gained additional momentum as B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis shifted his stance on ON to Buy from Neutral, while expanding the firm’s valuation target from $64 all the way to $115.
Ellis released his updated view in anticipation of ON’s first quarter 2026 financial disclosure, scheduled for May 4. His central argument: the cyclical bottom has passed, and the company’s strategic emphasis on power semiconductors, silicon carbide technology for electric vehicles, and industrial automation creates favorable conditions for growth ahead.
This upgrade represents one of the more pronounced positive shifts on a domestic chip manufacturer this season. ON shares were changing hands near $98 during intraday activity when Ellis published his note.
BofA Securities similarly elevated ON to Buy in recent weeks, highlighting the firm’s artificial intelligence capabilities, its Treo platform, and a freshly approved $6 billion capital return initiative extending across three years.
CEO Hassane El-Khoury recently indicated the company is observing “increasing signs of stabilization” across its core end markets, commentary that reinforces the optimistic outlook analysts have begun embracing.
Financial Performance and Outlook
Fiscal year 2025 revenue totaled $5.995 billion, representing a 15% decline from the prior year. While top-line results contracted, the company generated a record $1.418 billion in free cash flow during the period.
Management’s first quarter 2026 outlook anticipates revenue landing between $1.435 billion and $1.535 billion, with earnings per share ranging from $0.56 to $0.66. This forecast indicates sequential improvement, the development investors have been anticipating.
The equity currently trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 307x, appearing elevated. The forward multiple of 31x, however, incorporates the profit expansion analysts expect materialize.
Market capitalization stands around $35 billion. The analyst community remains divided: 11 recommend buying versus 23 suggesting holding positions.
InvestingPro analysis identifies the stock as trading above its Fair Value calculation, positioning it among the more richly valued equities in the current market environment.
Lead Time Extension Signals Demand Recovery
Another favorable dynamic is emerging beneath the surface. Baird’s research indicates semiconductor delivery windows are lengthening across various product categories.
MOSFET lead times now average 25 weeks across the broader industry. Onsemi’s MOSFET products specifically show delivery windows extending to 26 weeks — evidence that customer orders are accelerating beyond available production capacity.
This kind of supply constraint typically supports improved pricing dynamics, which would help gross margins recover from the 38% non-GAAP floor the company experienced during the previous downturn.
Challenges persist. Barclays highlighted ON’s substantial automotive and China market dependencies when launching coverage with an Equal-Weight stance.
Executive stock transactions also warrant attention. CFO share sales during April introduce a degree of caution into an otherwise constructive technical picture.
Market participants will focus intently on May 4, when ON Semiconductor unveils its first quarter 2026 performance. This earnings release will provide the initial evidence determining whether the stabilization narrative proves accurate.
